PVC周报：资金博弈激烈，低位震荡-20251110

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, PVC opened flat and trended lower, with the weekly line showing two consecutive negative trends and the main contract hitting a new low for the year. In the coming week, the fundamentals remain largely unchanged, maintaining a weak pattern of high inventory and high warrants. There is no upward driving force on the supply - demand side, but the low absolute price and the strong performance of coal at the cost - end provide support at the bottom. With the main contract's open interest reaching a new high, attention should be paid to the short - covering opportunities in the later stage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - Price Trend: This week, PVC opened flat at 4696, quickly rose to a weekly high of 4702, then continued last week's downward trend, reached a weekly low of 4600 on Thursday morning, and finally closed at 4611, down 90 points or 1.8% from last week. The weekly range was between 4600 and 4702, with an amplitude of 102 points [3][8]. - Base and Warehouse Receipts: No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only the topic is mentioned [11]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread showed a sideways shock [13]. - Valuation: - The gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method this week was - 723 yuan/ton, and the calcium carbide price rose slightly at a low level, strengthening the cost support [17]. - The profit of northwest chlor - alkali integration continued to be compressed [20]. - Supply: - This week, PVC production was 470,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. From January to week 43, the cumulative production increased by 4.6% year - on - year. In the next 3 weeks, the supply - demand pressure in the PVC industry will first increase and then decrease [25]. - Demand: - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction/construction/completion/sales area of real estate were - 18.9%/- 9.4%/- 15.3%/- 5.5%. The decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while the decline in construction and sales areas continued to expand [28]. - Currently, the downstream operating rate is maintained at around 50%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the apparent consumption in September was 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [31]. - Export: From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 980,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%). In September, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India) [34]. - Inventory: - As of Thursday this week, the PVC enterprise inventory was 340,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,000), and the pre - sales volume of upstream enterprises was 64 (a week - on - week increase of 8) [37]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 540,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1,000), and the large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1,000, a year - on - year increase of 206,000) [40]. Caustic Soda Market Review Only the topic of caustic soda market review is mentioned, and no specific content analysis is provided [41].