宏观点评：服务与输入性因素推升物价-20251110

Group 1: CPI Analysis - October CPI shows a positive marginal change, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, compared to a market expectation of -0.1% and a previous value of -0.3%[5] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.2%, surpassing the previous month's increase of 0.1% and the five-year historical average of 0.02%[7] - The improvement in CPI is primarily driven by food, services, and non-energy industrial consumer goods, influenced by holiday-related consumption and external factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - October PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first increase of the year, while the year-on-year decline was 2.1%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[29] - The recovery in PPI is attributed to easing supply-demand pressures and external input factors, particularly in the coal and non-ferrous sectors[34] - Production material prices rose by 0.1%, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to the PPI increase, with significant increases in coal mining and non-ferrous metal prices[32] Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Service prices showed notable recovery in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, influenced by holiday effects, particularly in travel-related categories[17] - Despite overall improvements, certain categories like pork and tobacco prices remain weak, with pork prices down 2.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI negatively by approximately 0.03 percentage points[25] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties, slower-than-expected recovery in domestic employment and income, and potential underperformance of policy effects[44]