电解铝现货价格创年内新高水平：——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.11.3-11.9）-20251110

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new high for the year at 21,580 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.31% and a profit estimate of 4,347 CNY/ton [3][12] - The report highlights a positive trend in liquidity, with the BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index rising to 52.41 in October, up 10.15% month-on-month [13][21] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing challenges, with a cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area of 18.90% from January to September 2025 [25][80] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [13] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -1.2 percentage points in September, improving by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month [21] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key enterprises in mid-October was 2.014 million tons [25] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces decreased by 0.80 percentage points [2] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a current rate of 73.67%, up 0.26 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel and aluminum prices increasing by 1.72% and 1.31%, respectively [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 was 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,058.17, reflecting a 3.60% increase [4] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.55, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent policy measures [4]