沥青：原油短期高位回落，沥青基本面差持续下跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is weak and volatile [3]. Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices have dropped from short - term highs, and asphalt has continued to decline due to poor fundamentals. The supply and demand of asphalt in China have both declined this week. The overall inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the cost is influenced by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In November, the production plan of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The planned output of domestic asphalt refineries in November 2025 was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons. This week, both supply and demand of domestic asphalt declined. The decline in supply was mainly due to the active reduction of production capacity by some refineries and the suspension of production in some others [3]. - Demand: Affected by the capital situation and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China were sluggish. The demand in the north gradually stopped, and the downstream demand in the south increased and decreased intermittently. The overall demand declined. This week's total shipment volume was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1%. It is expected that the industry's shipment volume will further decline next week [3]. - Inventory: This week, the factory and warehouse inventories in various regions of China showed a mixed trend of increase and decrease, and the overall inventory continued to be destocked. The destocking performance in East China was particularly prominent [3]. - Cost: At the beginning of this week, international oil prices rose slightly for three consecutive days due to multiple positive factors. In the later part of the week, oil prices fell for two consecutive days due to concerns about interest rate cuts, rising risk - aversion sentiment, and other factors. Overall, the oil price at the end of this week dropped compared with last week, and the average price this week also decreased compared with last week [3]. - Investment View and Trading Strategy: The investment view is weak and volatile. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is weak and volatile, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3]. 2. Price - The document provides the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China) from 2025/01 to 2025/11 [5]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: The document shows the asphalt crack spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [15]. - Basis: It presents the basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024/01 to 2025/10 [16]. 4. Supply - Production Plan Expectation: It shows the monthly production plan and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in North China, South China, Shandong, and East China in different years [19][23][26]. - Capacity Utilization: It provides the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][35][37]. - Maintenance Loss: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt production in China from 2018 to 2025 [42]. 5. Cost and Profit - Production Gross Margin: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - Diluted Asphalt: It provides the price, premium/discount, port inventory in China and Shandong of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [49][50]. 6. Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [54][57]. - Social Inventory: It presents the social inventory in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. 7. Demand - Shipment Volume: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [63]. - Downstream开工率: It provides the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [66][67][69]. - Modified Asphalt开工率: It shows the开工率 of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [72].