全球资产配置风险聚焦系列之三：如何看待美股近期波动加剧？

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the US stock market is attributed to a high valuation environment combined with liquidity risks, rather than fundamental changes in expectations [7][13][25] - The S&P 500 index's valuation reached 28x, surpassing the previous high of 27.5x in February, indicating increased market vulnerability [13][16] - The M7 weighted valuation hit a year-to-date high of 56x, reflecting a 19% increase in 2025, close to the valuation seen in May 2023 [13][20] Group 2 - The earnings resilience of US stocks, particularly in AI companies, is crucial for sustaining high valuations, with the S&P 500 showing an 81.3% beat rate in Q3 earnings [30][31] - The proportion of S&P 500 companies with positive EPS growth is strong, particularly in sectors like steel, non-ferrous metals, and retail, while technology sectors also show significant positive growth [30][35] - Concerns about the AI bubble are rising, with capital expenditure conversion rates becoming a key focus, especially for companies with aggressive debt expansion like META and Oracle [39][42] Group 3 - The report highlights that the market has become more selective regarding AI investments, with a notable divergence in performance between AI infrastructure and applications [39][50] - AI hardware companies have seen a 30% increase in long-term debt since 2020, raising concerns about financial stability amid rising interest rates [47][50] - The report indicates that the free cash flow to long-term debt ratio for AI-related companies is approximately 13.9%, suggesting that while revenue growth remains strong, the market is cautious about future profitability [42][50]