铝产业链日评：国内传统消费淡季来临压制铝价-20251110

1. Report Title - The report is titled "Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251110: Domestic Traditional Consumption Off - season Suppresses Aluminum Prices" [1] 2. Price and Market Data 2.1 Alumina - The national average price of alumina on 2025 - 11 - 07 was 2868.57 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. Different regions in China had varying alumina average prices, such as 2845 yuan/ton in Shanxi and 2975 yuan/ton in Guizhou on 2025 - 11 - 07. The Australian alumina FOB price was 319 dollars/ton on the same day [2] - Alumina futures had a closing price of 2789 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The basis and spreads between different contract months also fluctuated [2] 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The SMM A00 aluminum - semi - cut price was 21440 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07. The electrolytic aluminum futures closing price was 21600 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The basis and spreads between different contract months also changed [2] 2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) average price was 22550 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy and related basis and spreads also showed fluctuations [2] 2.4 London Aluminum - The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10930 on 2025 - 11 - 07. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 134625, and the spreads between different contract months also changed [2] 3. Core Views 3.1 Alumina - Domestic bauxite supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the prices of domestic (Guinea and Australia) bauxite have changed, leading to production losses for domestic and imported bauxite - based alumina. Overseas, new alumina production capacity is coming online, while some domestic alumina production capacity is undergoing phased production cuts or maintenance, reducing the supply - demand surplus. The production losses may limit the downward space of alumina prices [2] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - On the supply side, high production profits have led to high operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum, but the proportion of molten aluminum production has increased. The expected new replacement capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is limited. On the demand side, the operating capacity of the domestic aluminum processing industry has decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of aluminum cables, profiles, sheets, and foils have declined. On the inventory side, both domestic and LME electrolytic aluminum inventories have decreased. Due to the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, the increasing proportion of domestic molten aluminum production, the hawkish expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted [2] 3.3 Aluminum Alloy - The daily full - cost production cost of China's recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21050 yuan/ton, with negative profits, and the capacity utilization rate has remained flat. The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy has increased, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased (increased). Due to the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, the expected tight supply - demand of domestic scrap aluminum, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, the continuous accumulation of aluminum alloy social inventory may lead to an adjustment of aluminum alloy prices [2] 4. Trading Strategies 4.1 Alumina - Temporarily wait and observe, paying attention to the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3200 (view score: 0) [2] 4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Try shorting the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21800 - 22300 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3000 for London aluminum (view score: - 1) [2] 4.3 Aluminum Alloy - Try shorting the main contract with a light position in the short - term, and hold the long position of the previous electrolytic aluminum - aluminum alloy spread cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21300 - 21800 (view score: - 1) [2]