MA周报：弱现实叠加伊朗限气不及预期甲醇加速下跌-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Methanol is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The near - term is still dominated by weak reality. High port inventory, high imports, and continued inventory accumulation trends, along with the marginal deterioration in the inland market and the delayed progress of gas - shutdown of Iranian devices, are putting pressure on methanol prices [3][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Production Cost and Profit - The price of thermal coal continues to rise. Affected by supply tightening and winter storage expectations, traders are generally optimistic about the winter storage market, with strong reluctance to sell. However, the current price has exceeded the acceptance level of downstream terminals, resulting in light actual transactions. The coal - to - methanol production profit has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure [6][53]. Supply - This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the shutdown progress of natural - gas devices in the southwest. The external operating rate has declined. Iranian devices are operating at a high load, and it is reported that three enterprises plan to shut down from late November to December. Other regions have various device conditions, such as some devices in Tebah and Malaysia being in overhaul [6]. Demand - As the methanol price falls, the profit of port MTO has improved, and the inland methanol price has also loosened, with the MTO profit also rising. However, the future expectations for MTO devices are poor, with some devices having shutdown and overhaul plans. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different situations in various sub - industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, dimethyl ether, etc. [6][7]. Inventory - Inland inventory has increased by 10,400 tons to 386,400 tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has increased by 5,500 tons to 221,100 tons. Port inventory has increased by 10,600 tons to 1,517,100 tons, with inventory accumulation in the East China region and destocking in the South China region [7]. Regional Price Difference/Freight and Logistics Window - Port prices have stabilized after falling with the futures market, and the spot pressure is relatively high. Inland prices have rebounded, driven by large - scale device overhauls and increased external procurement of olefin devices. Freight rates are showing a weak downward trend. The opening and closing of logistics windows help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand disparities [14][24]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of coal - to - methanol has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure. As of October 2025, the non - CTO device capacity has increased by 1.63% this year, and it is expected that the annual capacity growth rate will be 7.71%. This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly [53][78][82]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - Global methanol prices are generally falling. The import profit of Iranian methanol and non - Iranian methanol shows certain trends. The external operating rate has declined, and the import volume and arrival volume have their own characteristics. The import volume in September was 1.4269 million tons, with a net import of 1.4092 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.22% but a month - on - month decrease of 19.01% [112][134][170]. Downstream Profit and Load - The profit of MTO has improved as the methanol price falls, but the future expectations for MTO devices are poor. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different profit and operating rate situations in various sub - industries [176][219].