Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side is affected by the shutdown of Ningde Jianxiawo Mine for 3 months and the mine - right transfer re - review notices in Yichun and Qinghai. Although the domestic carbonate lithium production in October increased by 10% month - on - month and the imported lithium concentrate in September was 711,000 tons, a 14.7% month - on - month increase, the import of carbonate lithium in September decreased by 10.3% month - on - month. The cost of some manufacturers using imported lithium ore is upside - down, while self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have some profit support [5][6]. - The demand side is strong. In October, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month. In September, the production of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. The production, export, and sales of power and other batteries all showed significant growth. The new energy vehicle market is expected to continue to grow rapidly due to policies. The inventory of carbonate lithium is in a destocking state this week [6]. - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium remain in a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. With the strong demand in the energy storage terminal, the production of ore - extracted lithium continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and inventory is transferred downstream. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be supported. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the progress of Yichun mine certificates and the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views Supply - Last week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 145 tons to 23,465 tons, and the production in October increased by 10% month - on - month to 105,040 tons. Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is shut down for 3 months, and enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received mine - right transfer re - review notices. In the third quarter, Australian mines controlled costs, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, that from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month, and that from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons. The import of carbonate lithium in September was 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost upside - down for some carbonate lithium manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - In October, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, and in September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month increase and a 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month increase and a 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month increase and a 42.2% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,075 tons, market inventory decreasing by 1,273 tons, and futures inventory decreasing by 289 tons [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Considering the supply side, with the ongoing shutdown of Ningde Jianxiawo Mine, the domestic production of carbonate lithium in October increased by 10% month - on - month, and the import of lithium concentrate in September increased by 14.7% month - on - month, while the import of carbonate lithium decreased by about 10% month - on - month but increased by 20% year - on - year. The downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand remain in a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply [6]. - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. In September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month, and the production schedule of cathode materials in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. With profit restoration, the production of ore - extracted lithium continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and inventory is transferred downstream. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be supported. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the progress of Yichun mine certificates and the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and factory monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of different types of batteries and cathode materials, average production cost of carbonate lithium, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, etc. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the time series and data ranges of these data are shown [8][10][11][15][17][20][21][23][26][27][30][34][36][38][40].
碳酸锂周报：去库趋势延续，价格偏强震荡-20251110
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-10 07:52