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行业间交易波动率上升,市场情绪继续修复:——量化择时周报20251107-20251110
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-10 08:10

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has continued to rise, reaching 3 as of November 7, up from 2.7 the previous week, indicating further recovery in market sentiment and a generally bullish outlook [1][6] - The trading volume of the entire A-share market slightly decreased this week, with an average daily trading volume of 20,123.50 billion yuan, showing a decline in market activity [1][12] - The industry trend scores have shown significant improvement, with utilities, power equipment, coal, environmental protection, and steel being the strongest short-term trends, particularly utilities with a score of 100 [1][33] Group 2 - The short-term trend scores for the steel industry have rapidly increased, maintaining a dominant position for value and large-cap styles [1][33] - The banking sector also saw a quick rise in short-term trend scores, reinforcing the dominance of value and large-cap styles [1][33] - The model indicates that the overall market and value styles are currently favored, with signals suggesting a potential strengthening of these trends in the future [1][44] Group 3 - The inter-industry trading volatility has risen sharply, indicating increased activity and liquidity in sector switching, with the index breaking through the upper Bollinger band [1][16] - The correlation between funding attention and stock price increases has shown a rebound, suggesting a marginal improvement in short-term market sentiment [1][11] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reflecting an increase in market leverage and a more active trading atmosphere [1][22] Group 4 - The model's overall indicators suggest that the market is currently experiencing a structural shift, with high trading congestion in sectors like power equipment, transportation, and coal, while sectors like computers and food and beverage show lower congestion levels [1][36][40] - The report highlights that high congestion in sectors with significant price increases may pose volatility risks, while low congestion sectors could present opportunities for excess returns if conditions improve [1][36][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking industry congestion to identify potential structural risks and optimize asset allocation strategies [1][36]