美元债双周报（25年第45周）：美国政府重启在即，美元流动性压力有望缓解-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Underperform the Market" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The US service sector activity rebounded significantly in October, with inflation pressure rising. The ISM Services PMI reached 52.4, a new eight - month high, and the price index soared to 70, a three - year high. The employment index is still in the contraction range, but the decline rate has slowed [1] - There is a growing divergence among Fed voting members on the future path of interest rate cuts. There are sharp differences between "doves" and "hawks", and the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 67% [2] - The US government is about to end the shutdown, and the liquidity pressure is expected to ease. Once the government restarts, the frozen fiscal expenditure will be released, and nearly $1 trillion in the TGA account will flow back into the market [3] - The current market features economic resilience, inflation pressure, and policy uncertainty. It is recommended to use a short - to - medium - duration strategy to capture returns, while guarding against long - term interest rate risks and maintaining portfolio flexibility. The investment strategy for US Treasuries is still mainly defensive and secondarily aggressive [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rate - Figures include 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the Treasury yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities of Treasuries, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year Treasuries, monthly Treasury issuance, and the implied interest rate cut expectations in the federal funds futures market [12][16][18] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - Figures cover US inflation year - on - year trends, the US federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit (fiscal year), the US economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, new housing approvals, starts, and sales year - on - year growth rates in the real estate market, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, break - even inflation expectations, and new ADP employment [24][26][28] Exchange Rates - Figures show the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost changes of the US dollar against the RMB [50][55][57] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Figures display the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, and the two - week returns (by rating and industry) [64][66][69] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating withdrawals, 3 initial ratings, 2 rating downgrades, and 2 rating upgrades [72]