油脂周报（P、Y、OI）-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short - selling recommendation for the oil and fat industry [5] 2. Core View of the Report - With the expectation of a looser supply of oils and fats both at the production areas and in the domestic market, the fundamental situation of the oil and fat market is bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Palm oil and soybean oil are neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Malaysian palm oil production areas have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter are increasing. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but the amount for commercial crushing is uncertain. There are expectations of peace talks between China and Canada, and there are good harvests in Canada, Australia and other production areas this year [5] - Demand: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Indonesian biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, with an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5] - Inventory: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic oil and fat inventory is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of replenishing inventory due to a large number of purchases by traders. For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5] - Macro and Policy: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles. Some of the US biodiesel exemption petitions have been approved, and there is still uncertainty about RVO. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5] - Investment View: Short - term short - selling. In the context of the expected looser supply of oils and fats at the production areas and in the domestic market, the oil and fat fundamentals are bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Short palm oil and rapeseed oil; Arbitrage: Long Y01 and short P01; Options: Buy call options for protection. Risk concerns include MPOB and USDA reports, unexpected production cuts, and policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][11][14] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: It shows the precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past and future periods [21][23][25] - Indonesian and Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand: It includes the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia from 2021 to 2025 [33][38][39] - Indian Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Differences: It shows the import quantities of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price differences between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [45][49] - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: It includes the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [51][53][55] - Weather and US Soybean Production Situation: It shows the temperature and precipitation distributions in the soybean - producing areas of Argentina and Brazil in the next 15 days, as well as the good - to - excellent rate and harvesting progress of US soybeans [62][65][71] - US and Brazilian Export Situations: It includes the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of US and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026 [75][79] - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: It shows the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, the daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and the weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [89] - Rapeseed Situation: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in the rapeseed - producing areas of Canada and Europe in the next 15 days, the soil moisture in Canada, the FOB prices of rapeseed in Ukraine, Australia, and Canada, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, the import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, the expected arrival volume of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the domestic market from 2021 to 2026 [90][99][101]