PVC周报：宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply - demand fundamentals show a pattern of oversupply. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, it is still at a low level. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the export is affected by policies and competition, making it difficult to increase significantly [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has increased slightly due to maintenance, and the production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 80.75%, a 2.49% increase from the previous period. The maintenance loss volume is 4.323 tons, a decrease of 0.684 tons from the previous period [3] - Demand: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 42%, a 0.8% increase from last week. The start - up rate of PVC profile enterprises has increased by 1.96%. The capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. The export from January to September has increased, with a cumulative export of 292.16 tons [3] - Inventory: It is neutral. As of November 6, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.13% to 104.16 tons, with an increase of 26.42% year - on - year. The inventory in the East China region has increased, while that in the South China region has decreased [3] - Basis: It is neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 111 yuan/ton [3] - Profit: It is bullish. The profits of both PVC production processes have decreased. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average profit of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - Valuation: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - Macro - policy: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short at high levels; for arbitrage, there is no recommendation [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has oscillated weakly this week. The supply is still at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The spot prices in different regions are: 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton in East China, 4650 - 4710 yuan/ton in South China, 4420 - 4550 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 4580 - 4640 yuan/ton in Shandong [6] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Output: After the end of maintenance, the output in the Northwest has rebounded [35] - Domestic Inventory: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. Factories in various regions have reduced their inventory [43][53] - Downstream Start - up Rate: The average downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, with the pipe start - up rate at 42% and the profile start - up rate at 37.83% [3][67] - Export: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to policies and competition [75][77]