宏观情绪降温有色金属结构性分化延续

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. It takes into account factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and price trends to provide investment suggestions for each metal [2][3]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price Trend: This week, copper prices fell from high levels but remained at historical highs, with weakening upward momentum. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation under the influence of macro and fundamental factors, with the main contract of Shanghai copper likely to operate in the range of 84,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Macro Factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve have cooled the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, leading to cautious market sentiment. The strengthening of the US dollar has also suppressed copper prices [2]. - Fundamental Factors: Overseas mine restarts are slow, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has not significantly improved. Domestic electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. High copper prices have curbed consumption, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - Investment Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. Aluminum - Price Trend: Aluminum prices are oscillating upward at a high level, while alumina prices are oscillating at a low level. The prices of aluminum alloys are also oscillating upward at a high level [2]. - Supply - Demand Factors: The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to improve, while the price of bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also risen. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has decreased slightly. The demand for aluminum downstream has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly [2]. - Investment Suggestion: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloys, it is recommended to strengthen observation [2]. Zinc - Price Trend: Last week, zinc prices continued to rise. In general, the supply - side support is relatively strong due to the continuous decline in processing fees, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of Shanghai zinc. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply - Demand Factors: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores have continued to decline, and the smelting profit has decreased. The market expects a reduction in refined zinc production. Terminal consumption is weak overall, and downstream enterprises maintain rigid - demand procurement [2]. - Investment Suggestion: It is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. Lead - Price Trend: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,420 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising and then falling. In the short term, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation [2]. - Supply - Demand Factors: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory has increased. The demand for lead smelting remains strong, but the high price of primary lead has reduced the stocking willingness of downstream enterprises and increased the demand for recycled lead [2]. - Investment Suggestion: It is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 17,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2]. Nickel - Price Trend: Last week, Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. Nickel remains in a surplus situation, and the price is expected to oscillate downward within the range of 117,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply - Demand Factors: The RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines continues, and miners' sentiment to hold up prices persists. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the inventory is increasing. The price of nickel iron is under pressure to oscillate, and the price of stainless steel is weak [3]. - Investment Suggestion: It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices [3]. Tin - Price Trend: Overseas supply is tight, and prices continue to oscillate. It is expected that tin prices will be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai tin 12 - contract [3]. - Supply - Demand Factors: In October, domestic refined tin production decreased year - on - year. The import of tin concentrates decreased in September. The consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the consumption of consumer electronics and photovoltaics is weak [3]. - Investment Suggestion: It is recommended to conduct range trading and continuously monitor the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. Industrial Silicon - Price Trend: Industrial silicon prices are oscillating and adjusting, and the overall idea is to conduct range trading or wait and see. The price of polysilicon is oscillating widely at a high level [3]. - Supply - Demand Factors: The weekly output of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The weekly output of polysilicon has decreased, and the market expects the establishment of a state - reserve platform. The production reduction of industrial silicon is stronger than that of polysilicon in reality, but the expectation of polysilicon production reduction still exists [3]. - Investment Suggestion: The overall idea is to conduct band trading, going long on polysilicon (PS) and short on industrial silicon (SI) [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trend: The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating widely overall, showing a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [3]. - Supply - Demand Factors: The supply and demand in the domestic market are in a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production of lithium carbonate in October increased month - on - month, and the import of lithium concentrates increased in September [3]. - Investment Suggestion: It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and continuously monitor the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 4. Macro - economic Data - China: China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity, but the growth rate has slowed down. In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [13][14]. - US: The US October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1, indicating that the US manufacturing industry continued to contract. The US Supreme Court held a public hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" [16][18]. - Eurozone: The Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI final value was 50, indicating that the manufacturing industry was in a state of stagnation [17].