甲醇日评：低估值弱驱动-20251110

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - term judgment of methanol is low - level oscillation. The absolute price and relative valuation of methanol are already relatively low, so it is not recommended to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive of methanol is limited due to high expected imports and insufficient downstream restocking power. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the expected gas restriction of inland gas - to - methanol, and the increase in option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2125 yuan/ton to 2112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; MA05 decreased from 2226 yuan/ton to 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%; MA09 decreased from 2230 yuan/ton to 2228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In some regions, such as Shandong, it increased from 2172.50 yuan/ton to 2185.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%, while in other regions like Guangdong and Shaanxi, there was no change [1] - Price differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 increased from 672.50 yuan/ton to 690.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.60%; Yulin Q6000 increased from 670.00 yuan/ton to 680.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased from 125.50 yuan/ton to 112.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04%; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Some downstream products like acetic acid and MTBE saw profit increases, with acetic acid increasing from 391.99 yuan/ton to 410.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.74%, and MTBE increasing from 383.68 yuan/ton to 407.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1] - Foreign information: In other regions of the Middle East, there were different price ranges for ship cargo negotiations, and the CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]