粕类周报：震荡偏强，关注USDA供需报告-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating with an upward bias" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor. With China's expected procurement of US soybeans, the short - term domestic futures market is expected to continue the oscillating and upward - biased trend following the US market. However, the expected global soybean supply surplus is likely to limit the rebound height of the futures market. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report and South American weather [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply factor is bullish. USDA's current estimate of the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations, indicating a tight supply - demand balance sheet. As of November 1st, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, lower than last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. In November, domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5] - Demand: The demand for soybean meal is neutral, and for rapeseed meal is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [5] - Inventory: The inventory factor is neutral. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and are expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [5] - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [5] - Profit: The profit factor is bullish. Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor, while Canadian rapeseed crushing margins are good [5] - Valuation: The valuation is neutral. From the perspective of crushing margins, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high - neutral valuation [5] - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy factor is bullish. Since November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US - imported goods have been adjusted, with a 24% additional tariff rate suspended for one year, leaving a 10% additional tariff rate, and the current tariff rate for Chinese imports of US soybeans is 13%. Canada cannot immediately cancel tariffs on China [5] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the trend is oscillating with an upward bias, and risks to watch include policy and weather; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [5] 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In September, the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [34][40] - US Soybean Data: The US soybean sowing rate and good - quality rate data are presented, and the domestic crushing profit has declined. This week, no US soybean export sales data were announced [49][54][67] - Price and Profit Data: Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean crushing margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and Canadian rapeseed import crushing margins are provided [74][78] - Inventory and Consumption Data: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while feed enterprise inventories are at low levels. Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories, as well as oil mill opening rates, crushing volumes, and meal product trading and consumption volumes, are also presented [85][98][107] - Livestock and Poultry Breeding Data: Data on livestock and poultry breeding profits, pig prices, weights, and poultry breeding inventories are provided, showing that pig prices have slightly declined and weight reduction is not obvious [123][127][131]