长江期货贵金属周报：政府继续停摆，价格延续震荡-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The continued shutdown of the US government, negative private - sector employment, and the US Supreme Court's query on the legality of Trump's full - scale tariffs have led to the continued oscillation of precious metal prices. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell believes that changing economic risks provide sufficient reasons for the Fed to cut interest rates, Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, so a further interest rate cut in the December monetary policy meeting is not certain. With the US economic data trending weaker and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term, while remaining in an adjustment state in the short - term [11]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Due to the continued shutdown of the US government, negative private - sector employment, and the US Supreme Court's query on the legality of Trump's full - scale tariffs, the price of US gold continued to oscillate. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4008 per ounce, a weekly decline of 0.1%. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level of $4100 and the lower support level of $3950 [6]. - The price of US silver also oscillated under the same factors. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.1%, closing at $48.23 per ounce. Attention should be paid to the lower support level of $47 and the upper resistance level of $49.5 [9]. 02. Weekly View - The factors mentioned above cause precious metal prices to continue oscillating. Market has different views on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts is lowered. Trump affects the Fed's independence, and US employment slows down. Powell sees reasons for rate cuts, but Fed officials' hawkish views make a December rate cut uncertain. With weak US economic data and market concerns, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term and adjust in the short - term [11]. - Gold: This week, COMEX inventory decreased by 13,641.72 kg to 1,173,518.12 kg, while SHFE inventory increased by 1800 kg to 89,616 kg. - Silver: This week, COMEX inventory decreased by 72,246.03 kg to 14,933,286.22 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 42,492 kg to 623,052 kg. - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week. - Strategy suggestion: Trade cautiously and within a range. Refer to the operating range of 890 - 945 for the SHFE gold December contract and 10800 - 11700 for the SHFE silver December contract [13]. 03. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet size and its weekly change, and WTI crude oil futures price trend, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][17][20][21][23][24]. 04. Important Economic Data of the Week - US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. - US October ADP employment change was 42,000, higher than the expected 25,000 and the previous value of - 29,000 [27]. 05. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Private data shows that US employment decreased in October due to government and retail sectors, and the number of announced layoffs increased because of corporate cost - cutting and AI adoption. In October, 9100 jobs were lost, with 22,200 lost in the government sector. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that high inflation is not conducive to the Fed's further interest - rate cuts, and she is worried that current monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with inflation. - The US October ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, the highest since February, driven by strong new orders. However, weak employment indicates a sluggish labor market under the uncertain economic background of tariffs. The ADP National Employment Report shows that employment rebounded by 42,000 in October after a loss of 29,000 in September [28]. 06. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory is 1,173,518.12 kg, a decrease of 13,641.72 kg from last week; SHFE inventory is 89,616 kg, an increase of 1800 kg from last week. - Silver: COMEX inventory is 14,933,286.22 kg, a decrease of 72,246.03 kg from last week; SHFE inventory is 623,052 kg, a decrease of 42,492 kg from last week [13][33]. 07. Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13][37]. 08. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (November 13) at 21:30, the US October CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [39].