Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14. Towards the end of the year, the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate may show a "shifting bottom in fluctuations" trend [3]. - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the repair of the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to buy on dips, with mid - term long positions held and empty positions bought in batches on dips [5]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and it is advisable to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [9]. - Copper prices will continue to seek a balance point, with different fluctuation ranges depending on downstream procurement volume [12]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina to operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level [13][14][16]. - Zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, tin to fluctuate narrowly, and lithium carbonate futures to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [16][17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely, and lead to fluctuate mainly [19][20]. - Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and iron ore prices are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term adjustments, and ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - Crude oil is in a narrow - range fluctuation, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly, PX - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, and MEG - bottle chips are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [30][34][35]. - Methanol 01 is looking for support, PP is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, PE is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [38][40][43][44]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level, and urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [45][46][47]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the reality is weak but the cost is strong. Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [48][53]. - For live pigs, it is waiting for the bottom - building, and for oilseeds, attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report [55]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: China's price index has marginally rebounded. The export growth rate has significantly declined due to base disturbances, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: In the previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower. In October, China's foreign trade maintained growth, and the foreign exchange reserve and gold reserve increased [2]. - Core Viewpoints on Exchange Rates: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14 [3]. - Stock Index: The stock index closed slightly lower in the previous trading day. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds fell back after high - level fluctuations last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold & Silver: The precious metals market fluctuated narrowly last week. It is in a short - term adjustment phase, and mid - term buying opportunities on dips should be noted [7][9]. - Copper: The copper price fluctuated last week. Macro factors are bearish, and the price will continue to seek a balance point [9][12]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is affected by funds, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum prices [13][14][16]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fluctuated strongly last week, with a certain upward drive [16]. - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly, with a stable 290,000 yuan pressure level and high - level consolidation expected [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price strengthened last week. It is expected to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [17]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: They are expected to fluctuate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [18][19]. - Lead: Lead prices fluctuated narrowly, and are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term [20]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: They fell weakly last week. Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, with high de - stocking pressure on coils [21][23]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are under pressure from both macro and fundamental aspects and are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The prices may face short - term adjustments, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black metal sector in the medium - to - long term [26]. - Ferroalloys: They are expected to fluctuate, with high inventory and weak demand [27]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It is in a narrow - range fluctuation, with weak short - term momentum and long - term pressure [30]. - LPG: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but lacks further upward drive [30]. - PX - PTA: They are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA oversupply situation is difficult to change [31][34]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: They are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [35]. - Methanol: Methanol 01 is looking for support, with port pressure difficult to relieve [38]. - PP: It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with high supply and weak demand [39][40]. - PE: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a difficult - to - change supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [44]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level [45][46]. - Urea: Urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term, with high supply but supported by export policies [47]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: The reality is weak but the cost is strong, with different trends for each [48][50]. - Paper Pulp & Offset Paper: Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [53]. - Propylene: It is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with a loose supply situation [54]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: They are waiting for the bottom - building, and the long - term can be bullish, but the medium - and short - term are based on fundamentals [55]. - Oilseeds: Attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report, with the import of soybeans and the supply and demand of domestic soybean meal having their own characteristics [55].
金融期货早评-20251110
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-10 08:11