Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-10 08:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288) [1] Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China continues to lead among major banks in performance, with a 2.0% year-on-year revenue growth and a 3.0% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 [4][6] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio slightly decreased to 1.27%, while the provision coverage ratio improved to 295% [4][6] - The bank's strong performance is attributed to accelerated asset growth and a significant increase in non-interest income, which grew by 20.7% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the total revenue is projected to be 718.70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.15% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 290.51 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 2.99% year-on-year growth [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 10.10% in 2025, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.27% [5] - The provision coverage ratio is expected to remain strong at 295.11% in 2025 [5] Performance Highlights - The bank's revenue growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2025, with a 3.0% increase in net profit compared to the previous year, outperforming the average of major banks [6] - Deposit growth accelerated to 9.3% in the third quarter, supporting credit expansion [6] - The bank's net interest margin remained stable at 1.30%, with a slight decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year [6] Investment Analysis - Agricultural Bank of China is expected to undergo a new round of value reassessment due to its superior revenue and profit performance among state-owned banks [6] - The stock has risen nearly 60% since the beginning of the year, leading the banking sector [6] - The bank's strong capital base and anticipated mid-term dividends are expected to further solidify its high dividend advantage [6]