Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-10 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China [1] Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China continues to lead among major banks in performance, with a 2.0% year-on-year revenue growth and a 3.0% increase in net profit for the first nine months of 2025 [4][6] - The bank's non-interest income has seen a significant increase of 20.7% year-on-year, contributing positively to revenue growth despite a decline in net interest income [6][10] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.27% and a high provision coverage ratio of 295% [6][10] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the bank is projected to achieve total revenue of 718.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.15% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 290.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.99% [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 10.10% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.43 [5] Performance Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the bank's total assets amounted to 48.14 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [10] - The total loans increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with total deposits also growing by 9.3% [10] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) is projected to be 1.30% for 2025, down from previous levels due to competitive pressures [6][10]