Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of logs is bearish, with an increase in the number of departing vessels and shipping volume from New Zealand in October 2025. The demand, inventory, and valuation are neutral. After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. - The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - Demand: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Inventory: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase [4][32]. - Valuation: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - Investment Viewpoint: After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. 2. Review of Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. - Futures and Spot Prices: The log futures and spot prices showed that the spot was weak, and shorting after a rebound was considered [7]. - Futures Positions: As of November 7, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,242 lots, a 13.9% increase from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 18,027 lots, a 14.9% increase from the previous week [11]. 3. Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase and a 7.37% year - on - year decrease. From January to September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 18.016 million cubic meters, an 8.14% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, China imported about 1.4993 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 14.79% month - on - month increase and a 4.08% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, China imported about 13.502 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 0.74% year - on - year increase [21]. - Shipping Volume from New Zealand: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - Inventory: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase; the radiation pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.72% week - on - week increase; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 9.09% week - on - week decrease; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventory, as of October 31st, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.883 million cubic meters, a 0.97% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 822,594 cubic meters, a 4.54% increase from the previous week [32]. - Outbound Volume: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from the previous week [35]. - Downstream: As of November 7, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/cubic meter, a 20 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week decrease; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 3.8 yuan/cubic meter, a 15 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week increase; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [39].
原木现货价格下跌，考虑逢高做空
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-10 08:19