有色金属周报：美元指数走强，有色板块涨跌分化-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Copper: Due to high prices suppressing downstream demand and a decline in market risk appetite, copper prices are under pressure but the downside is expected to be limited. Short - term, copper prices are expected to adjust weakly, and it is recommended to do long - spread arbitrage on SHFE copper [8]. - Nickel: Affected by the US government shutdown and uncertainties in Indonesia's nickel - related policies, nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, there is still pressure from oversupply of primary nickel [89]. - Stainless Steel: With weak raw material prices, reduced steel mill production, and weak downstream demand, stainless steel futures will fluctuate weakly [90]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色金属价格监测 - Various有色金属 showed different price trends. For example, the US dollar index was at 99.5, with a daily decline of 0.15%, a weekly decline of 0.18%, and an annual decline of 8.24%. The price of industrial silicon was 9,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.71%, a weekly increase of 1.32%, and an annual decrease of 16.07% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - Macro Factors: China's exports declined in October, the US consumer confidence index hit a new low, and the US government shutdown continued, all of which were bearish for copper [8]. - Raw Material End: The spot processing fee of copper ore rebounded slightly, but the tight supply pattern continued. The accident at Freeport's mine in Indonesia will lead to a decline in copper and gold production in 2026 [8]. - Smelting End: The losses of smelters using spot copper ore narrowed, while the profits of those using long - term contract copper ore increased. Domestic copper production continued to decline in October [8]. - Demand End: Although downstream demand improved slightly due to the decline in copper prices, the overall downstream copper product start - up rate in October decreased significantly [8]. - Inventory: Both domestic and foreign visible copper inventories increased, and global copper inventories continued to rise [8]. 3.3 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - Nickel - Macro Factors: The US government shutdown and weak domestic manufacturing PMI put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [89]. - Raw Material End: Indonesia restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was firm. The import of nickel ore from the Philippines decreased seasonally, and domestic port inventories decreased slightly [89]. - Smelting End: Pure nickel production was at a high level, but some enterprises planned to reduce production at the end of the year. Nickel iron prices were stable, and the demand for nickel sulfate increased [89]. - Demand End: The social inventory of stainless steel remained stable, and the demand for new energy vehicles was strong, increasing the demand for nickel sulfate [89]. - Inventory: Global nickel inventories continued to increase [89]. - Stainless Steel - Production: Domestic stainless steel production increased in October but is expected to decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series is also expected to decline slightly [133]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel remained stable, with narrow inventory increases mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series [139]. - Supply and Demand: The import of stainless steel increased slightly in September, while exports decreased. Overseas demand was weak, and the subsequent tariff policy was uncertain [149].