Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polysilicon: Short - term weak, pay attention to the support at the previous low point [1] - Industrial silicon: Oscillating strongly, hold long positions [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon is in a tight - balance state in November, but it is difficult for the spot price to rise further. The futures price is weak in the short - term, and there may be support at the (51000, 52000) level after the November delivery [4]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a tight - balance state. The current inventory structure is conducive to a positive feedback between futures and spot prices. There may be positive news from the silicone enterprise meeting next week, and there may be production restrictions in Xinjiang due to weather, so it is more cost - effective to hold long positions [6]. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Supply and demand: In November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared with October, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 11.8 tons. The polysilicon production is 11.5 - 12 tons, showing a tight - balance state. The upstream inventory is about 25 tons, the downstream raw material inventory is about 17 tons, and the inventory of warrants and traders is about 4.5 tons [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand situation of polysilicon has improved marginally this month, but the prices of downstream silicon wafers and batteries are under pressure, and the inventory of crystal - pulling factories is high. It is difficult for the spot price to rise further. The futures price is weak in the short - term due to the lack of upward momentum in the spot price and the non - implementation of the platform company. After the November delivery, the negative impact of warrants on the futures price is significantly reduced, and there may be support at the (51000, 52000) level [4]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: Short - term weak, wait and see; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell put options when the price pulls back to the support level [5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply and demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC increased by 5.51% to 4.79 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 5.05% to 2.91 tons. The operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys are 59.4% (up 0.2 percentage points) and 59.1% (unchanged) respectively. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 7.85% to 9.09 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 55.2 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.39 tons to 17.48 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.26 tons to 23.66 tons [6][13][26][27]. - Trading logic: The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", which is conducive to a positive feedback between futures and spot prices. The high operating rates of silicone and aluminum alloy provide certain support for the demand of industrial silicon. Although the production of polysilicon has decreased significantly this month, the large - scale production cuts of silicon factories in Yunnan and Sichuan have led to a tight - balance state in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. There may be positive news from the silicone enterprise meeting next week, and there may be production restrictions in Xinjiang due to weather, so it is more cost - effective to hold long positions [6]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: Hold long positions; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market review: This week, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly, and the main contract closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained stable [10]. - Downstream demand: The weekly output of DMC increased by 5.51% to 4.79 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 5.05% to 2.91 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 59.1% [13]. - Output: The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 7.85% to 9.09 tons, and the total number of open furnaces decreased by 42 this week. The number of open furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while that in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Ningxia increased slightly. The operating rate of silicon factories in the northwest has reached a high level, and there is no significant room for production increase in the future. It is expected that the output of industrial silicon will continue to decrease next week [26]. - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 tons to 55.2 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.39 tons to 17.48 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.26 tons to 23.66 tons [27]. - Product prices: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week, and the prices of DMC and terminal products increased slightly [32][38]. - Related product prices: The prices of industrial silicon - related products remained stable, and the prices of silicone - related products increased slightly [32][38]. - Intermediate fundamental data: The operating rate of silicone intermediates increased slightly [43]. - Aluminum alloy fundamental data: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly, while that of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged [46]. - Raw material prices: The raw material prices remained stable [49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Price trends: This week, the spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49.4 - 55 yuan/kg, the price of N - type dense material is 49 - 53 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon is 50 - 51 yuan/kg [53][56]. - Downstream product prices: The prices of some silicon wafers and batteries decreased slightly, while the component prices showed a mixed trend [62][66]. - Component fundamental data: Component enterprises are gradually raising component quotes. The production of some component enterprises has decreased this month, but the terminal demand provides certain support. The planned production of components in November is 46GW. The inventory of European photovoltaic components has increased to 35.4GW, and the inventory of domestic photovoltaic manufacturers' components is 31.2GW, which is at a moderately low level [79]. - Battery fundamental data: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of professional battery manufacturers is 3.85GW, which is at a moderately low level. The battery production schedule has been adjusted down to 54GW in November [80]. - Silicon wafer fundamental data: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises decreased, and the weekly output decreased to 13.45GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 17.52GW. The planned production of silicon wafers in November is 59GW, a decrease of 1GW compared with October [86]. - Polysilicon fundamental data: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 25.9 tons. The planned production cuts of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in November will lead to a decrease of about 2 tons in the polysilicon output compared with October. The new production capacity of some enterprises is ramping up, and there is a certain production - cut plan for GCL Technology. Overall, the polysilicon output in November will decrease by about 2 tons compared with October [94].
工业硅：短期偏弱，关注前期低点支撑，工业硅：震荡偏强，多单持有
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-10 08:19