天然橡胶周报：商品市场情绪转好，橡胶短期止跌反弹-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating." The report suggests that the industry may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material prices have strong support, the mid - stream inventory has increased slightly, the downstream demand remains stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. With the improvement of short - term commodity market sentiment, the natural rubber market may show a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan first fell and then rose, while in Hainan, they were adjusted downward due to weather disturbances. In Thailand, the glue price in the south increased, and the cup - rubber price in the northeast decreased. In Vietnam, raw material prices were relatively firm due to typhoon - induced rain [3]. - Demand: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises was stable, and it is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week, with potential drag from individual enterprises' maintenance plans [3]. - Inventory: It is bullish. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, with an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory and a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory. The warehouse - receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber also increased [3][108]. - Basis/Spread: It is bullish. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread both widened [3]. - Profit: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber, domestic concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber was in a loss state, but the loss of Yunnan whole - milk rubber delivery profit improved [3]. - Valuation: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - Commodity Market: It is neutral. The short - term Sino - US tariff policy has been postponed, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: It is oscillating. The short - term market may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance [3]. - Trading Strategy: Go long unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage, while paying attention to production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely this week. They first fell and then rose. As of November 7, the RU main contract closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,035 yuan/ton, down 1.67% week - on - week [6]. - Spot Market: Spot prices showed an oscillating performance [9]. - Position: The RU position was low, and the NR position decreased. The RU - NR spread rebounded [16][23][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting rubber production [40]. - Upstream Raw Materials: Raw material prices were firm. The prices of glue and cup - rubber in Thailand and glue in China showed different trends [50]. - Production in Producing Countries: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). China's natural rubber imports from January to September were 4.7172 million tons (+19.65%) [73][92]. - Mid - stream Inventory: China's social "inventory" increased slightly. As of November 2, 2025, the social inventory of natural "rubber" was 1.056 million tons, and the inventory in Qingdao also increased [100][108]. - Downstream Tire Demand: Tire capacity utilization remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization of full - steel "tire" sample enterprises was 65 "37%", and that of semi - "steel" tire sample enterprises was 72.89%. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week [118]. " - Down "stream Tire Inventory: Tire inventory in Shandong decreased slightly [119]. - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in October, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [137]. - Tire Exports: From January to September, tire exports were 7.28 million tons (+5.0%) [139][146]. - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk " "rubber" was in a loss state [148]. - Futures - Spot Spread ": The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [169].