第45周成交回落，新发展模式有利行业健康发展
Haitong Securities International·2025-11-10 08:25

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2][12]. Core Insights - Recent transaction volumes in major cities have declined, but stable policies and year-end expectations are anticipated to support market stabilization, benefiting quality real estate companies [2][12]. - The new development model in the industry is gradually being established, which is favorable for quality real estate firms [2][12]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In week 45 of 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, down 23.4% week-on-week and 34.1% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 420,000 square meters, down 20% week-on-week and 38% year-on-year. Second-tier cities sold 840,000 square meters, down 21.3% week-on-week and 32% year-on-year. Third-tier cities sold 310,000 square meters, down 32.5% week-on-week and 32.9% year-on-year [13]. - From November 1-6, 2025, 30 cities sold 1.1 million square meters, up 188.7% from October 2025, but down 46% year-on-year [13]. Second-Hand Home Sales - In week 45 of 2025, second-hand home sales in 24 cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, down 4.82% week-on-week and 23.9% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 820,400 square meters, down 8.6% week-on-week and 16.2% year-on-year [14]. - From November 1-6, 2025, 24 cities sold 1.81 million square meters, up 917% from October 2025, but down 23.1% year-on-year [14]. Land Transactions - In week 45 of 2025, land transaction growth in 100 cities rebounded with 37.5 million square meters supplied and 25.08 million square meters sold, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.50. Land transfer revenue was RMB 75.5 billion [15]. - Cumulative land supply in 100 cities was 676.39 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year, while cumulative land transfer revenue was RMB 1.82 trillion, up 1% year-on-year [15]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - In October 2025, the inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities was 23.13 months, up 2.50% from the previous month and up 0.90% year-on-year. The available inventory was 31.51 million square meters, down 0.82% from the previous month and down 3.44% year-on-year [16].