宏观周报：国内10月CPI同环比变化均录得上涨-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with the core CPI showing continuous growth. The PPI decline narrowed, indicating some improvement in the domestic economic situation. The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results [3][41]. - The US government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and although the September inflation data slowed down more than expected, it is difficult to change the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [45][46]. - In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by multiple factors, and is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - GDP: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the second quarter [17]. - Industrial Added Value: In September 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing industry accelerated its growth, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.6% from January to September [18]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the first nine months turned negative, at - 0.7%. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Real estate investment continued to cool down, while the decline in narrow - sense infrastructure investment narrowed [18]. - Social Retail Consumption: In September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [18]. - Unemployment Rate: In September 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [18]. - Import and Export Data: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase. In September, exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations [7]. 3.2 Financial Situation - Social Financing Data: In September 2025, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [35]. - Credit Data: In September 2025, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The recovery rhythm of credit demand was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [36]. - Money Supply: In September 2025, the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year, at 1.2 percentage points, reflecting positive signals such as increased business activity and recovery of personal investment and consumption demand [35]. 3.3 Price - Related - CPI: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food and energy prices were still at a low level, but the decline rates narrowed [41]. - PPI: In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year, and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing for the third consecutive month [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - US Economy: In September 2025, the US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly affected by the decline in rent prices. The US federal government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and the Fed may still cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [45][46]. - Eurozone Economy: In October 2025, the Eurozone HICP decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the core HICP remained unchanged [14]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - RMB Exchange Rate: In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by factors such as the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals, improvement of the international balance of payments, and policy guidance. It is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. - Interest Rates: The report also presented data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields [55][56].