10月进出口点评：出口转跌非趋势，资本品出口潜力仍在

Export Performance - October exports saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping to -1.1%, down from 8.3% in September[5] - The decline was attributed to factors such as the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday misalignment and market expectations regarding the year-on-year base effect[5] - Despite the drop, the two-year compound growth rates for September and October exports remained stable at 5.3% and 5.5% respectively[5] Trade with the United States - Exports to the U.S. in October experienced a year-on-year decline of 25.2%, an improvement from the 33.1% drop in August[5] - Traditional consumer goods, including bags, shoes, and clothing, saw declines exceeding 10% in October[5] - The "overdraft effect" from previous U.S. import demand is expected to take time to fully dissipate, keeping short-term export figures low[5] Regional Trade Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and India showed varying degrees of decline, but two-year compound growth rates indicated a recovery similar to that of U.S. exports, with increases of 2.9% to 3.4%[5] - The indirect trade channels between China and the U.S. remain significant, contributing to export stability[5] High-Tech and Capital Goods - Exports of high-tech products and capital goods, particularly in semiconductors, ships, and automobiles, showed strong performance in October, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.9%, 68.4%, and 34% respectively[5] - The growth in high-tech exports is largely driven by demand from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative[5] European Market Challenges - Exports to the EU faced significant pressure, with a decline that exceeded what could be explained by base effects, indicating weakening demand[5] - The EU's retail inventory levels have returned to historical averages, reducing the impetus for import demand[5] Future Outlook - The export outlook for the fourth quarter is expected to stabilize around 0%, influenced by the ongoing "overdraft effect" and potential impacts from U.S. trade policies[5] - The resilience of capital goods and high-tech exports remains a key factor for overall export performance moving forward[5]