宏观扰动及旺季预期先行提前充分计价，盘面震

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index is affected by macro - disturbances and the advanced full pricing of peak - season expectations, leading to a volatile market. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Their Effects - Spot Freight Rates: They have a negative impact. In late November, MSK quoted 2250, HPL 3150, CMA 3200, YML 2550, and ONE 2600. Airlines' price - increase calls are showing obvious differentiation [5] - Political and Economic Factors: They have a neutral impact. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on various US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15% compared to before. The overall TPEB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. After the pre - peak - season concentrated booking rush affected by the expected tariff increase on November 1st, the market demand in November remained healthy [5] - Capacity Supply: It has a positive impact. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] - Demand: It has a neutral impact. The key influencing factors are the realization of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airlines' strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - Investment Viewpoint: The market is expected to oscillate [5] - Trading Strategy: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of various container shipping routes such as the European line index, US - West line index, and US - East line index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [9] 3.3 Part Two: Static Capacity - Order Volume: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [15] - Delivery Volume: It shows the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [18][19] - Future Delivery: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods through charts [24][26] - Ship Prices: It includes new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities, and presents their trends over the years through charts [31][33][37] - Existing Capacity: It shows the existing capacity, age structure, idle and retrofit ratios of container ships through charts [46][49][53] 3.4 Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule: It shows the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) on the Shanghai - European basic port route through charts [61][63][65] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: It shows the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships and capacity in TEU, as well as the average age and time for installation through charts [71][72][75] - Average Speed: It shows the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [76] - Idle Capacity: It shows the idle capacity, idle - ship number, and idle - capacity ratio of container ships through charts [79][80][81]