纸浆周报：暂无新仓单生成，延续12-1反套-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is significant. It is recommended to conduct a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage [4]. - The pulp fundamentals remained stable this week, with the futures price fluctuating at a low level. The problem of old warehouse receipts has not been resolved, and it is expected that the downstream futures market will still be based on old - warehouse - receipt trading, suppressing the near - month contract prices. The 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy should be maintained [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: The import quotations of Chile's Arauco company show a decrease in coniferous pulp and an increase in broad - leaf pulp. In October 2025, China's pulp production was 2.084 million tons, a 10.2% month - on - month increase, indicating a relatively loose supply [4]. - Demand: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not increased significantly. The inventory of finished paper is high, and paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which has not boosted pulp prices [4]. - Inventory: As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.008 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% month - on - month decline, showing a narrow - range destocking trend [4]. - Investment Viewpoint: 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: The pulp futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The total futures contract positions increased by 4.80% to 341,276, and the main - contract positions increased by 10.63% to 171,788 as of November 7, 2025 [23]. - Spot Market: Some spot prices' basis increased slightly. The prices of coniferous pulp silver star and broad - leaf pulp goldfish remained stable week - on - week and month - on - month. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle increased by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week and 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. In October, the coniferous pulp's overseas quotation decreased, while the broad - leaf pulp's price increased [16][19]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. In October 2025, the total pulp import volume was 2.952 million tons, a 11.27% increase; the coniferous pulp import volume was 691,000 tons, a 12.54% increase; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.356 million tons, a 7.79% increase; and the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.471 million tons, a 16.84% increase [5]. - Inventory: The pulp port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. Overseas, the inventory of coniferous pulp mills increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp mills remained stable [34][37]. - Downstream Demand: The price of white cardboard increased by 3.7% month - on - month, while the prices of other paper types remained stable. In October 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month, with double - offset paper production increasing by 4.8%, copper - plate paper by 2.4%, tissue paper by 0.9%, and white cardboard by 1%. The inventory of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also increased to varying degrees [42][47]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle decreased by 112 yuan/ton to - 444 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shandong silver star decreased by 202 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton. - Month - to - Month Spread: The 12 - 1 month - to - month spread widened, reaching - 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton from the previous week. - Import Profit: As of November 7, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.4 yuan, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 37 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan [82].