原油周报（SC）：市场暂缺有效驱动，国际油价弱势下跌-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks effective drivers, and international oil prices are falling weakly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, and the supply - demand situation remains bearish. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating and weak performance [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term): Bearish. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. For example, EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,585 million barrels per day, an increase of 267 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term): Neutral. Different institutions have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025. EIA raises the forecast, OPEC keeps it unchanged, and IEA slightly lowers the growth rate forecast [3] - Inventory (Short - Term): Bearish. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and there were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3] - Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term): Bearish. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which may intensify concerns about market oversupply [3] - Geopolitics (Short - Term): Neutral. There are some geopolitical events, but they have limited impact on the oil market for now [3] - Macro - finance (Short - Term): Neutral. There are signs of economic weakness in the U.S., and the market has expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] - Investment View: Oscillating. Short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] - Trading Strategy: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - Main Oil Product Prices: SC crude oil increased by 0.41% week - on - week, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.71%. There were also corresponding price changes in gasoline, diesel, and other oil products [5] - Inventory and Other Data: There were changes in the inventories of various oil products in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, and the operating rates of refineries in different regions also changed [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - Market Review: International oil prices fell weakly this week. As of November 7, WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.04 dollars per barrel (-1.71%), Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.88 dollars per barrel (-1.36%), and SC crude oil futures rose by 1.90 yuan per barrel (+0.41%) [7] - Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10] - Forward Curve: The near - month spread declined [24] - Cracking Spread: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [32][43] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In September 2025, global crude oil production increased. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all reported an increase in production compared to August [64] - Non - OPEC Production: The production of non - OPEC countries increased [66] - U.S. Production: As of the week ending October 31, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased to 13.651 million barrels per day. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased to 548 as of the week ending November 8 [89] - Inventory: U.S. commercial inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels, and Cushing inventory increased by 30,000 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [90][99] - U.S. Demand: Gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased [117] - China Demand: The refinery capacity utilization rate increased slightly. For example, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 0.15 percentage points compared to last week [126][134] - China Refinery Profits: The gross profit of major refineries declined, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel also declined [135] 3.5 Macro - finance - U.S. Treasury Yield and Dollar Index: The U.S. Treasury yield rebounded, and the dollar index oscillated [148] 3.6 CFTC Positioning - The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [157]