基础设施投融资行业2025年三季度政策回顾及展望：“化债纵深”与“转型攻坚”协同推进

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In Q3 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "base investment") industry policies continued to develop in depth on the basis of the dual - track approach of "controlling new debts and resolving existing ones" and "promoting development". The "package debt - resolution" policy was further refined, the debt management became more standardized and transparent, the process of platform exit accelerated, and a series of policies were introduced to support the base investment enterprises in expanding effective investment and promoting transformation. The implementation of these policies effectively mitigated local government debt risks, but challenges such as the management of operating debts of base investment enterprises still remained [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Review - "Package Debt - Resolution" Policy Deeply Refined: As of August 2025, 4 trillion yuan of the one - time increase of 6 trillion yuan in special debt quota had been issued, and the 2 trillion yuan quota for implicit debt replacement in 2025 was basically used up. 800 billion yuan was allocated from new local government special bonds to support debt resolution. Financial debt - resolution also accelerated, and measures to clean up arrears to enterprises were strengthened. Debt management was more standardized, with stricter new bond issuance review and upgraded debt monitoring [4][6]. - Dynamic Adjustment of High - Risk Debt Areas and Accelerated Platform Exit: As of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms had exited. Some provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had achieved or were applying to exit high - risk debt areas [7]. - Support for Base Investment Enterprises to Expand Effective Investment: In 2025, the new special bond quota was increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. As of September 30, 2025, 3.6 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued, completing 82% of the annual quota. A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan was arranged, and policies to support the construction and operation of PPP stock projects were introduced [8][10]. - Accelerated Stock Asset Revitalization and Strengthened Transformation Policy Guidance: A series of policies were introduced to guide the industrial transformation of base investment enterprises, and local governments continued to deepen the revitalization of state - owned assets [11]. Policy Main Impacts - Accelerated Implementation of Local Government Replacement Bonds and Mitigated Debt Risks: As of September 30, 2025, local government new bonds had completed 81.92% of the annual quota, and replacement bonds for implicit debt had completed 99.31% of the annual quota. The scope of special bond investment expanded, which was expected to relieve the investment and financing pressure of base investment enterprises [17]. - Tightened Supply of Urban Investment Bonds: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total issuance of urban investment bonds decreased by 9.53% year - on - year, and the net financing was negative. The stock of urban investment bonds decreased by 6.38% compared with the end of 2024 [18]. - Adjusted Financing Channels and Optimized Debt Structure of Base Investment Enterprises: Under the influence of policies, the proportion of credit financing of base investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing and non - standard financing decreased [19]. - Reduced Number of Risk Events of Base Investment Enterprises, but Attention Needed for Operating Debts and Interest Payments: The number of non - standard risk events of base investment enterprises decreased compared with 2024, but the operating debts, interest payments, and government - occupied funds of base investment enterprises still needed attention [20]. - Phased Achievements in "Exiting Platform" and Transformation of Base Investment Enterprises: Since the implementation of the "package debt - resolution" policy, about 658 base investment enterprises declared themselves as "market - oriented business entities", and more than 110 base investment enterprises announced to exit the platform list in the first three quarters of 2025 [21]. Industry Development Expectations and Opportunities - Continuous Implementation of "Package Debt - Resolution" Policy with Regional Differences: The "package debt - resolution" policy will continue to be implemented, but there are regional differences in debt - resolution progress and risks. Future policies are expected to be more refined and differentiated [23]. - Operating Debts to Become the Key Focus and Support for Enterprise Transformation: As implicit debts are gradually resolved, operating debts will become the key focus. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will help base investment enterprises open up new investment spaces and promote transformation [26]. - Accelerated Transformation of Base Investment Enterprises with Risks to Be Alerted and Attention to Government - Enterprise Relationship: The transformation of base investment enterprises may bring compliance and credit risks. The change in the government - enterprise relationship of base investment enterprises in the post - implicit debt era needs continuous attention [29]. Conclusion The base investment industry policies continued to develop in depth, effectively mitigating local government debt risks. However, the operating debts, interest payments, and government - occupied funds of base investment enterprises still need attention. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide opportunities for enterprise transformation, but regional differences exist. Risks in the transformation process and changes in the government - enterprise relationship need to be continuously monitored [30][31].