现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda has stabilized, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. Multiple factors affect the market, including supply, demand, inventory, etc. Overall, the short - term market lacks a clear trend and is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. Regional differences exist, with load increases in the Northwest, Northeast, and South China, and decreases in North China and Central China [3]. - Demand: Alumina production declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The monthly start - up rate of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall production remained basically flat [3]. - Inventory: Recently, there has been a lot of delivery, and caustic soda inventory has decreased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 414,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.29% and a year - on - year increase of 57.84%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 24.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.39% [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 75, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - Profit: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 45%. Liquid chlorine prices fell, and caustic soda prices stabilized, leading to a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3]. - Valuation: The spot price is neutral, and the absolute futures price is low. Near - month contracts are at a discount [3]. - Macro - policy: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - Investment View: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: There are no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies currently. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The futures market fluctuated within a range. This week, Shandong spot prices showed mixed trends but generally remained stable, and the futures price hit a new low. The price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly to - 100 yuan/ton, and the electricity price increased, causing the chlor - alkali profit to approach the break - even point. Three factories have planned maintenance in November. Currently, there is less maintenance, production has increased, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The spot price is expected to stabilize. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices and the alumina production schedule [6]. - Position: The total position increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [21]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices have risen [28]. - Device Loss and Capacity Utilization: Data shows the historical trends of device loss and capacity utilization [31]. - Inventory: Data shows the historical trends of caustic soda inventory, including liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda [31]. - Production in Main Producing Areas: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. Data shows the historical production in different regions [33]. - Chlor - alkali Profit: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [34]. - Downstream Price: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [37]. - Alumina: Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina has improved, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has decreased, and alumina profit is good and stable year - on - year [49][50][59]. - Non - aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum production remains stable but is lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and production has started to decline [60][62]. - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The production rate has rebounded [69]. - Subsequent Maintenance Information: Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, including specific maintenance times and production capacities [74].