银河期货航运日报-20251110

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concerns about the shipping companies' quotes falling short of expectations in the second half of November still exist, and the peak season height in the future may be limited. The EC futures market continued to fluctuate in a callback. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Analysis: On November 10, EC2512 closed at 1778.2 points, down 1.87% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line index released after the market closed was 1504.8 points, up 24.5% week-on-week. The spot freight rate basically met expectations. The shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' schedule adjustment plans, cargo - collection performance, and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday arrangement on the EC2602 contract valuation [6][7] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and there are still concerns about the expectations not being met in November. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short term, so it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage trading, it is also recommended to wait and see [8][9] Industry News - According to Clarksons' data on November 7, the global new ship orders in October this year were 2.91 million compensated gross tons (118 ships), down 38% year - on - year and 33% month - on - month. Chinese shipyards ranked first with 2.13 million compensated gross tons (98 ships), accounting for 73% of the market share [10] - On November 7, 2025, a container ship caught fire during unloading operations at the Tanjung Pelepas Port in Malaysia, resulting in 3 deaths and 3 injuries, and the port suspended operations [10] - On November 10, several Democratic senators in the US Senate were ready to advance a package of bills to end the government shutdown. The US Treasury Secretary said that the impact of the government shutdown on the economy was getting worse, and inflation was making substantial progress with prices expected to fall in the coming months [10][11] Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European line index and SCFIS US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes such as Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, and Shanghai - Europe [14][16][18]