Shanghai Ziyan Foods (SH:603057) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-10 09:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 25 RMB per share, reflecting a 15% upside potential based on a 50x PE for 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company experienced a positive revenue turnaround in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 1.04 billion RMB, up 1.75% year-on-year, despite a significant decline in net profit [9]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) faced pressure, decreasing by 5.61 percentage points to 22.92%, primarily due to rising costs of imported beef [10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, with a current total of 5,260 stores, targeting university towns and large factory canteens for new openings [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 3,550 million RMB, 3,363 million RMB, 3,207 million RMB, 3,428 million RMB, and 3,760 million RMB, respectively, indicating a decline in the short term but potential growth in the long term [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease significantly in 2025E to 205 million RMB, down 40.7% from 2024A [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 0.50 RMB, 0.62 RMB, and 0.73 RMB, respectively [4][8]. Product and Regional Performance - Fresh goods revenue showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year to 874 million RMB in Q3 2025, with notable growth in other fresh goods, which increased by 27.4% [11]. - Regional performance varied, with East China revenue down 1.9%, while South China and overseas markets saw significant growth of 73.1% and 57.7%, respectively [11].