海外宏观周报：美国经济不确定性上升-20251110

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US federal government shutdown has lasted 36 days as of November 5, marking the longest shutdown in US history, potentially reducing Q4 GDP growth by up to 2 percentage points[2][3] - The October ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 48.7, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, the highest in eight months[3][4] - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000[3][4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has increased from 63% to 66.9%[4] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - Eurozone's October Manufacturing PMI is at 50, while Services PMI is at 53, indicating stable economic conditions[5][8] - Japan's nominal wages increased by 1.9% year-on-year in September, supporting the Bank of Japan's tightening policy[6][8] - Global stock markets have collectively declined, with US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping by 1.6% and 3.0% respectively[10][12] - Commodity prices, including oil and gold, have decreased, reflecting suppressed global risk appetite[10][17] Group 3: Risks and Predictions - Risks include potential unexpected impacts from Trump's policies, higher-than-expected stagflation in the US, and increased volatility in global financial markets[22] - The GDPNow model predicts a 4.0% annualized growth rate for Q3 2023 in the US[3][4]