Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 09:26Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall market lacks significant driving factors, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [2]. - The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar is still evident, but as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to decline seasonally. With strong expected production increases in India and Thailand, the rebound of raw sugar prices is weak. The domestic market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas and policies. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction, and the new crushing season is mostly expected to start in mid - to late November, with a possible delay, which provides some sales opportunities for old sugar [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,475 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 373,243 lots, an increase of 1,282 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,663, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56,451 lots, an increase of 2,007 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,305, a decrease of 281. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,967 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,023 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,022 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,650 yuan/ton, in Nanning is 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 1,116.21 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 835.09 million tons, a decrease of 12.86 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar is - 280,000 tons, and the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,560 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 1,504 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 505 yuan/ton, and for Thai sugar is 432 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.5%, an increase of 0.07%, and that of at - the - money put options is 7.51%, an increase of 0.01%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.34%, a decrease of 0.2%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.82%, a decrease of 0.15% [2]. Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending November 5, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 81, down from 86 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.0598 billion tons, up from 2.9933 billion tons the previous week. Three sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, one more than the same period last year. Brazil exported 420.5 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Since the 2025/26 crushing season (April - March of the following year) until October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 21.9568 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.27% [2].