Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 09:26Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is high, but the grade of nickel ore is decreasing, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year. - Newly - invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - end pressure, some smelters are incurring losses and reducing production. Thus, the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited. - Stainless steel mills show the characteristic of a lackluster peak season, but the price of ferronickel has fallen, improving the profit of steel mills, and the planned production volume is expected to increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. - Domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium rises; the LME inventory overseas also shows an increase. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate weakly. Technically, the position increases while the price falls, the bearish sentiment heats up, and the lower limit of the range is being tested. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or short when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the MA10 pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,680 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 240 yuan/ton; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,020 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,784 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,095 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 34,356 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,298 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 253,104 tons, unchanged from the previous period. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 37,187 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 436 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 13,734 tons, unchanged from the previous period. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,533 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 121,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 191.38 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.81 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,481.66 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.56 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous period [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2112 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0248 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5708 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results. Driven by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate has been expanding for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% month - on - month in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics not only postponed the release of the CPI report but also suspended the offline data collection work. Although the market still tends to expect an interest rate cut in December, the lack of official data may give policymakers who are worried about the resurgence of inflation a sufficient reason to keep interest rates unchanged next month. - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1% year - on - year; soybean imports reached a record high for the same period, while the import volume and price of refined oil, natural gas, and coal both decreased, and rare - earth exports ended three consecutive months of decline. - According to the Passenger Car Association, China's retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month in October. China's retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7.3% year - on - year and decreased by 1.3% month - on - month in October [3].