Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 09:26Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material cost has decreased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricting nickel resource supply and increasing costs, while the high production of Indonesian ferronickel is expected to increase the return volume to China and lead to an obvious decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure of stainless steel is expected to increase as steel mills' production profits are restored, and production schedules are likely to rise at the end of the traditional consumption peak season with expectations of infrastructure and real - estate demand. However, the downstream demand shows a weak peak - season characteristic, with low market purchasing willingness and general inquiry and transaction performance, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the short - selling sentiment is strong, showing a downward - channel trend, and the support at 12,400 should be watched. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies, paying attention to the MA30 pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,605 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,121 lots, down 690 lots; the main - contract position is 46,429 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 72,031 tons, down 60 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 415 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 0.2112 million tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 75.78 million tons, down 2.69 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, up 0.0248 million tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5708 million tons, down 0.01 million tons; the monthly stainless - steel export volume is 0.4585 million tons, down 0.0295 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show effects. Driven by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% month - on - month increase in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. Although the market still expects a rate cut in December, the lack of official data may give policymakers worried about inflation a reason to keep interest rates unchanged next month. China's exports in October denominated in US dollars decreased 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased 1% year - on - year. Soybean imports reached a record high for the same period, while the import volume and price of refined oil, natural gas, and coal both declined, and rare - earth exports ended three consecutive months of decline. China's retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while new - energy vehicle retail sales increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]