钢材期货周度报告：需求淡季承压，盘面震荡回落-20251110

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season of demand, with short - term market fluctuating within a range. The downward price space is limited due to the increasing influence of coking coal and coke. In the future, with the strengthening of production cut expectations, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically. In the short term, steel prices have weak rebound momentum and may show narrow - range fluctuations [2][26]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - National steel prices declined slightly this week. The weak reality continued to suppress steel prices, and the cooling of macro - favorable expectations led to mediocre market sentiment and a slight drop in market activity. Fortunately, raw material support remained. As of November 7, the average price of 20mm Grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major national cities was 3,225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures stipulated in the "Announcement of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Imposing Additional Tariffs on Some Imported Goods Originating from the United States" (Tariff Commission Announcement No. 2 of 2025) will stop being implemented [6]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the United States will be adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on the United States will be retained [6]. - The "China's Action for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper released on the 8th shows that China has achieved remarkable results in the green and low - carbon transformation of energy. The proportion of non - fossil energy consumption increased from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% in 2024, with an average annual increase of nearly 1 percentage point [6]. - In October, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease; imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. In the first 10 months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 22.12 trillion yuan, a 6.2% increase; imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year [6]. - At the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.343 trillion US dollars, compared with 3.339 trillion US dollars at the end of September. China's gold reserves at the end of October were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2,304.457 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 12th consecutive month of gold purchases [7]. - In the first 10 months, the total sales of the TOP 100 real - estate enterprises were 2,896.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. In October, the sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7%, and the market as a whole continued to bottom out [7]. - In October, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9%. In October, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 1.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger car market was 58.7% [7]. - In October, the monthly operating rate of major construction machinery products in China was 55%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of excavators was 55.1% [7]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 96,400 tons, lower than last week's 104,300 tons. Due to the unrelieved capital pressure and the influence of temperature, the terminal demand shrank, and the procurement behavior was mainly based on demand, resulting in light overall trading [9]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has entered the off - season of demand. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the increasing influence of coking coal and coke, the downward price space is limited. In the future, with the strengthening of production cut expectations, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically. In the short term, steel prices have weak rebound momentum and may show narrow - range fluctuations. From the perspective of the market, the black series generally closed down, while rebar slightly closed up. Specifically, the main 01 contract of rebar closed at 3,034, up 6 points for the day, down 72 points from last Friday's closing price, with a weekly settlement price of 3,049, down 54 points from last week, and the weekly price center of gravity moved down. The latest position was 1.96 million lots, an increase of 81,000 lots from last week and a decrease of 100,000 lots from the weekly high of 2.06 million lots. With the withdrawal of funds in the last two days of this week, the market showed a state of increasing price with decreasing positions and was slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils. However, it still failed to break through the weekly pressure line of 3,045 on Friday, and the technical signal was still weak. The current fluctuation range is 2,950 - 3,160 [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, mainly conduct range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt wide - straddle consolidation [2][26].