瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea production continues to increase this week following the previous cycle's equipment changes [2] - The compound fertilizer's operating rate has rebounded due to improved sales, but it is expected to decline steadily or slightly considering new orders [2] - Urea enterprise inventory increased slightly last week, and with weak agricultural demand and moderate industrial and reserve demand, some enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, while inventory may continue to accumulate in the short - term [2] - The U2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1640 - 1690 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 72 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest is 257,574 lots, down 11,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31,413 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 6415 sheets, up 1830 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei remained unchanged at 1590 yuan/ton, while those in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui increased by 30, 10, 20, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The main contract's basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 357.5 and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 7.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, up 2.39%; the daily output is 183,500 tons, down 4400 tons [2] - Urea exports are 1.37 million tons, up 57%; the monthly output is 5.73867 million tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, up 3.22% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 83 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, up 1600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 5, enterprise inventory was 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons week - on - week, a 1.53% increase [2] - As of November 6, port inventory was 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons week - on - week, a 28.18% decrease [2] - As of November 6, production was 1.3545 billion tons, up 39.2 million tons week - on - week, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% [2] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]