银河期货农产品日报-20251110

Group 1: Market Information - Fuji apple price index is 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 6.94, down 0.22 [3] - AP01 futures price is 9150, up 119; AP05 is 9260, up 111; AP10 is 8360, up 70 [3] - AP01 - AP05 spread is - 101, up 8; AP05 - AP10 is 900, up 41; AP10 - AP01 is - 799, down 49 [3] Group 2: Market News - In September 2025, fresh apple imports were 0.97 million tons, down 17.85% month - on - month and 1.10% year - on - year; exports were about 7.08 million tons, up 3.50% month - on - month and down 6.32% year - on - year [6] - From January to September 2025, cumulative fresh apple imports were 10.81 million tons, up 19.49% year - on - year [6] - Shandong apple acquisition is nearing completion; Northwest cold storage is starting to release goods, with higher prices for farmers' goods in cold storage [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples is 0.4 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [7] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream price of 70 semi - commercial apples is 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin; in Qixia, Shandong, the price of good - quality apples is stable [8] Group 3: Trading Logic - This year's apple production is down, good - fruit rate is poor, and cold - storage inventory is likely to be lower than last year [9] - As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 51.68%, 10.62 percentage points lower than last year; inventory is 682.74 million tons, 17.04% lower [9][10] - The apple fundamentals are strong, but the current price is high, with large market divergence and high short - term risks, so it is recommended to wait and see [9] Group 4: Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, wait and see due to high price and large market divergence [20] - For arbitrage and options, also wait and see [20]