银河期货尿素日报-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sentiment in the domestic urea market has cooled, with supply being ample and demand showing a downward trend. Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas will boost market sentiment in the short - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose in the medium to long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance of price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 1660 (-8/-0.48%) [3]. - Spot Market: Factory prices rose, but trading was average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On November 10, the daily urea production was 19.51 tons, 0.28 tons less than the previous working day and 1.08 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, 1.89% higher than 81.52% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices have gradually resumed operation, and the average daily output has increased to around 19.6 tons [5]. - Demand: The issuance of the fourth batch of quotas has made the impact of international prices on the domestic market more prominent. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the demand is weakening. The inventory of urea production enterprises has slightly increased to around 158 tons [5]. - Price Trend: In the short - term, domestic demand is limited, and the spot market sentiment is still sluggish. Although the issuance of the new quota will boost the market sentiment, the overall domestic demand will enter a "vacuum period" again after the autumn fertilizer season. In the medium to long - term, the urea fundamentals are still loose [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions are recommended [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6].