银河期货煤炭日报-20251110

Group 1: Market Review - On November 10, port market quotes were firm. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Coal prices in different regions varied [2]. Group 2: Important Information - In October 2025, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal, a decrease of 451.1 million tons (9.75%) compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 426.60 million tons (9.27%) compared to September. From January to October 2025, China imported 38762.30 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [3]. Group 3: Logic Analysis - Supply: Restrictions on production still had an impact. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 10, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 390 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened [4]. - Import: China's procurement demand was strong, and coal prices generally rose. Indonesia's precipitation affected coal production and transportation, leading to a tight market supply [4]. - Demand: Most power plants maintained a load of around 70%. Power plant inventory days were at a medium - to - high level. Some power plants mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, achieving a balance between intake and consumption, while a few made small - scale market purchases [4]. - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.3 billion tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. Port inventory was generally stable. As of November 10, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 2237 million tons, at a neutral level in history. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but their inventory was continuously decreasing, while inland power plants had neutral inventory [4]. - Outlook: In mid - November, coal production in major producing areas was low. The coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily output of around 380 million tons, and the supply tightened. Power plant inventory continued to decline, import profit margins opened up, and coastal power plants increased their procurement. Port intake and output were at low levels, and port inventory fluctuated within a range. As the high - temperature weather subsided nationwide, power plant daily consumption remained low, and coal consumption was average. However, coastal power plant inventory was lower than the same period, with continuous rigid - demand procurement. Port FOB prices continued to rise. With strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, the coal mine operating rate was low, production was average, and the demand for chemical coal was fair, so the mine - mouth price rose firmly. It was expected that coal prices would rise in the short term [4].