Group 1: AI Contribution to the US Economy - In the first half of 2025, AI-related investments contributed approximately 1% to the GDP growth rate, comparable to the 1.1% contribution from consumer spending[4] - After excluding the impact of capital goods imports, the contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth drops to about 0.2%[5] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated to be only 9% when capital goods imports are considered, significantly lower than the 11%-18% contribution during the internet boom[21] Group 2: Future Expectations for AI Investment - The capital expenditure of major US AI companies (MAG7) is expected to grow by 54% and 30% in 2025 and 2026, respectively[7] - AI-related investments are projected to increase by 10% and 9% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, contributing approximately 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth[7] - When accounting for net imports, the contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 may only be around 0.1% and 0.3%[7]
【每周经济观察】海外周报第113期：有，但可能没有那么强——AI对美国经济贡献的思辨-20251110
Huachuang Securities·2025-11-10 10:18