黎明前夕，曙光将至：白酒进入底部战略性布局期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strategic bullish outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-quality companies, indicating that it has entered a strategic allocation period [1]. Core Views - The liquor sector is expected to experience a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026, with a potential dual impact on valuation and performance by the end of 2026 and into 2027 if the fundamentals recover as anticipated [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding the fundamentals and acknowledges that the performance of individual stocks will vary during this phase [1]. - Key recommended stocks include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye, with additional attention on Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinhui Jiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Jianshiyuan, and Yanghe Distillery [1]. Summary by Sections Fundamental Analysis - The liquor sector has accelerated its clearing process in Q3 2025, with expectations for a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026. The industry faced significant pressure in demand due to external structural disturbances, leading to a projected 20%-30% year-on-year decline in overall sales volume in Q3 2025, which is approximately 50% lower than Q3 2023 [3]. - High-end liquor prices have continued to decline as the market seeks a balance between volume and price [3]. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the liquor sector's absolute PE level stands at 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [3]. - The report anticipates an increase in dividend rates for liquor companies, with many leading firms disclosing three-year dividend return plans, and most companies currently offering a dividend yield of over 3%, indicating long-term investment value [3]. Holdings Analysis - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's holding proportion fell to 5.52%, reverting to levels seen in Q2 2017. This represents a decrease of 1.26 percentage points from the previous quarter, which is below the average since 2009 [3].