Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 10:33Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].