Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 10:33Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports have increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters have arrived at ports, and smelters are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have been reduced, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, smelter profits have shrunk significantly, and some smelters are in the red. Although new production capacities are being released, refined zinc output growth is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, the export window has opened, and it is expected to gradually shift to net exports. On the demand side, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season effect is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home appliance sectors show some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, the market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, the spot premium is low, but domestic inventories are decreasing, and LME inventories are also decreasing with a high spot premium. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small long position [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price difference between the December - January contracts of SHFE zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,066.5 dollars/ton, up 15.5 dollars. The total SHFE zinc open interest is 228,100 lots, up 1,217 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,827 lots, up 1,263 lots. SHFE zinc warrants are 69,869 tons, up 601 tons. The SHFE inventory is 100,208 tons (weekly), down 3,208 tons, and the LME inventory is 34,900 tons, up 800 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,420 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 152.26 dollars/ton, up 47.51 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,330 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons (monthly), down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons (monthly), up 17,700 tons. The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons (monthly), up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons (monthly), up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons (monthly), up 38,100 tons [3]. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons (monthly), down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons (monthly), up 2,166.92 tons. Zinc social inventories are 161,800 tons (weekly), down 400 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.19% (daily), down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.2% (daily), down 0.45 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.37% (daily), down 0.15 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.01% (daily), down 0.31 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In October, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 6th consecutive month. PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% month - on - month increase in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollar terms, while imports increased 1% year - on - year. China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, and new - energy vehicle retail sales increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3].