Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 10:33Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. After the adjustment of the load of East China olefin enterprises, the overall olefin industry's start - up continued to decline last week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2130 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 1405588 lots, an increase of 14769 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 259592 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10790, a decrease of 124 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference was 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the Chinese main port was 243 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 273 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia was - 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.15 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.56 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 386400 tons, an increase of 10300 tons. The start - up rate of methanol enterprises was 87.79%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 41.75%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 69.61%, a decrease of 3.86 percentage points; the start - up rate of MTBE was 68.55%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points; the start - up rate of olefins was 89.98%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 623 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.43%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.92%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.12%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points [2] 7. Industry News - As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 38.64 tons, an increase of 1.04 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.75%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.11 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.57%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons. The inventory at East China ports increased by 2.42 tons, while the inventory at South China ports decreased by 1.36 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the output of the restored production capacity, and the overall output increased [2] 8. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]