宏观数据观察：东海观察10月通胀超预期回升，通胀整体改善

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the CPI rebounded more than expected. Upstream international commodity prices generally increased, and the domestic supply - demand relationship improved, with the PPI decline narrowing continuously. The CPI rose month - on - month and exceeded expectations year - on - year, showing short - term improvement in inflation. Although domestic demand is weak, external demand provides short - term support. With the deepening of anti - involution in some domestic industries, the price center of some domestic - demand commodities is expected to continue to rise. The PPI decline will continue to narrow gradually, and the CPI is expected to gradually recover [3][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year (expected - 0.1%, previous value - 0.3%) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%). The inflation rebounded more than expected due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the impact of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays. The drag from the carry - over effect on CPI year - on - year decreased, and the new price increase was higher than the seasonal level. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with a narrowing decline, while non - food prices rose by 0.9%. Core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 6 consecutive months, and service prices and industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) also showed upward trends [3][4]. PPI Analysis - In October, the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year (expected - 2.2%, previous value - 2.3%), with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points for three consecutive months. The month - on - month change turned from flat to a 0.1% increase, the first increase this year. Besides the lower comparison base in the same period last year, positive changes in some industries' prices were due to improved supply - demand relationships and the impact of imported factors on the price trends of non - ferrous metals and petroleum - related industries. Domestically, despite weak demand, the deepening of anti - involution led to price increases in some industries, causing the PPI decline to narrow [4]. Future Outlook - Currently, China is at the end of the commodity consumption peak season, with weak domestic demand. However, external demand is strong, providing short - term support. With the deepening of anti - involution in some domestic industries, the price center of some domestic - demand commodities is expected to continue to rise. Internationally, the OPEC+ production increase and energy sanctions against Russia have lowered the crude oil price center, while non - ferrous metal prices have rebounded. Overall, the PPI decline will continue to narrow, and the CPI is expected to gradually recover with the implementation of service consumption policies, improvement in food supply - demand relationships, and the elimination of the high - base effect from the previous year [3][4].