股指及商品策略专题：股指、贵金属观点与策略-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index Futures: Neutral [24] - Precious Metals: Cautiously Bullish [7][47] 2. Core Views - Index Futures: The market is at a critical point, with cautious trading volume. It is expected to oscillate around the integer point in the short - term, which helps consolidate the long - term pattern. Short - term fluctuations may be intensified by the US dollar liquidity risk [3][24]. - Precious Metals: Despite the uncertain interest - rate cut rhythm and the recovery of US economic data, the record - breaking government shutdown in the US may intensify market risk - aversion sentiment, supporting the safe - haven premium of precious metals [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis Index Futures - US economic data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in November 2025 was 50.3, the lowest since June 2022. The one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.7%. The US government shutdown led to a rapid decline in the three major US stock indexes [4]. - Domestic situation: External relations have eased, and the macro - level driving force has weakened. Institutional pressure has eased, and it is the portfolio rebalancing window. The stock position is oscillating, and the risk appetite is decreasing. The margin trading balance has increased weekly but has not exceeded the previous high, and the daily average trading volume is less than 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index is likely to oscillate around 4000 points [4]. Precious Metals - Price performance: In the week of 2025 - 11 - 07, gold and silver prices continued to oscillate, showing signs of stabilization after a high - point correction [5]. - Interest rate situation: The Fed's "hawkish interest - rate cut" in October was implemented. There are significant differences within the FOMC on whether to cut interest rates again in December, and the future interest - rate cut path is highly uncertain [5]. - Economic data: The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but overall labor demand is slowing, and wage growth is stagnant. The US ISM Services PMI in October rose to 52.4, a new eight - month high, with multiple sub - indexes performing well, but core data such as non - farm payrolls are still missing due to the government shutdown [3][5]. Strategy Index Futures - Unilateral strategy: Bullish on IH and IF; Neutral on IC and IM [7]. Precious Metals - Strategy: Cautiously bullish; Suspend arbitrage [7]. Index Futures Logic and Strategy Table - Economic environment: Neutral. China's service trade import and export in the first three quarters increased by 7.6% year - on - year, with a shrinking trade deficit [24]. - Valuation: Neutral. The price - to - earnings ratio of index futures has recovered, while the price - to - book ratio is still low, and the stock - bond ratio has decreased [24]. - Liquidity: Neutral. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal last week was 157.22 billion yuan [24]. - Monetary policy: Upward. The central bank will maintain a supportive and moderately loose monetary policy [24]. - RMB trend: Upward. The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the Fed's substantial interest - rate cut and the consolidation of domestic demand [24]. - Incremental funds: Upward. The government encourages the entry of long - term funds, and institutional incremental funds are expected to drive market stability [24]. - Restricted stock unlocking: Neutral. There will be 1.407 billion restricted shares of 34 companies unlocking this week, with a market value of 24.733 billion yuan, an increase of 742 million yuan from the previous week [24]. - Overall evaluation: Neutral. The market is in a game around 4000 points, with cautious trading volume. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and investors are advised to use index futures for risk hedging [24]. Commodity Strategy View Table - Interest rates: Upward. The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities changed in different directions. Doubts about the Fed's independence and expectations of a September interest - rate cut are the main trading themes. If Trump successfully removes a Fed governor, it may boost precious metal prices [44]. - Inflation: Upward. The 10 - year Breakeven inflation rate remained stable at 2.41%. US core PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is emerging. The market expects a September interest - rate cut [44]. - Exchange rate: Upward. The US dollar index rose slightly. The market expects a 25 - basis - point Fed interest - rate cut in September, which may suppress the US dollar [47]. - Safe - haven: Neutral. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Ukraine are in a state of balance [47]. - Position: Neutral. Gold SPDR ETF holdings increased, while silver SLV ETF holdings decreased. Gold speculative net long positions increased, while silver net long positions decreased [47]. - Gold - silver ratio: Short at high levels. The trading logic of silver is similar to that of gold, and silver may have upward potential with the implementation of easing policies and the repair of the gold - silver ratio [46][47].