中国经济的阿尔法时代：——2026年宏观经济展望

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The global asset market in 2025 was driven by three main themes: artificial intelligence, "de-dollarization" amid interest rate cuts, and fiscal expansion policies from various countries[5] - The US dollar index fell by 8% in 2025, influenced by Trump's actions that damaged the dollar's credibility, leading to a global asset rebalancing favoring currencies like the yen and euro[5] - Major assets such as the Korean Composite Index and silver saw significant gains of 71% and 69% respectively in the first ten months of 2025[6] Group 2: US Economic Outlook - US consumer spending remained stable due to tight labor supply and stable wage growth, with actual purchasing power higher than in 2021-2022[10] - The actual tariff rate in the US was around 11%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of 18%, limiting potential increases in tariffs[10] - The expected CPI growth for the US in 2026 is projected to average 3.1%, with inflation pressures peaking in the first half of the year[19] Group 3: Domestic Economic Projections - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is set around 5%, with fiscal and monetary policies expected to support this goal[39] - Net exports contributed positively to China's economy in 2025, while investment contributions declined, prompting increased focus on investment policies[38] - The real estate market in China is nearing a bottom, with conditions gradually maturing for stabilization[45] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a strategic allocation opportunity in gold and copper, with gold's share in global reserves at 26.8%, significantly lower than historical levels[30] - The copper market is expected to experience a structural tightness due to insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades, making it a focus for investment[30] - The US stock market presents more opportunities than risks, driven by commitments from foreign investments in AI and technology sectors[34]